2014 and 2013 Readings Also Revised
Sunday July 31, 2016
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis this week revised its GDP estimates for 2013, 2014, and 2015, and we have accordingly revised our Staying Even Index (SEI) estimates for each of these years.
The changes are displayed in the table below, which shows the 2015 SEI rising to 2.9% from our last estimate of 2.6%, and 2014 and 2013 readings increasing as well. Also included is the CPI growth in each year. Across the three years, a 9.2% increase in incomes was necessary to Stay Even in the U.S. economy, much higher than the 3.2% increase in the CPI in this timeframe. This demonstrates, once again, that raises that keep up with CPI/COLA are not sufficient for individuals to keep up in the growing U.S. economy.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
3-Year Growth |
|
| Updated (Current) SEI Estimate | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 9.2% |
| Last SEI Estimate Prior to July 2016 GDP Revisions | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 8.5% |
| Consumer Price Index (Avg.) | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 3.2% |
The SEI measures the growth in income from all sources necessary for individuals to maintain their adjusted share of the U.S. economy. The SEI is based upon per person growth in the US economy (growth in nominal GDP per capita) and the simple proposition that individuals whose incomes growth faster than the growth in nominal GDP per capita are growing their adjusted share of the U.S. economy, and those whose incomes are growing more slowly are falling behind.
Revised SEI estimates suggest that individuals whose 2015 total income from all sources grew by more than 2.9% from the same period in 2015 expanded their adjusted share of the U.S. economy, and those whose total income grew by less than this fell behind compared to the prior year. This is based upon 2015 US nominal GDP growth of 3.7% and annual population growth of 0.8%.
StayingEven.com will publish updates to these figures as GDP and population estimates are revised over the coming months and as future quarter GDP estimates are released. We are dedicated to helping individuals understand what income growth is required to keep up in the U.S. Economy.
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