Revised US Government 2nd Quarter GDP Estimates Push YTD Q2 SEI to 3.1% From 3.0% Previously Estimated
Monday, September 28, 2015
Based upon Friday’s U.S. second quarter GDP “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, StayingEven.com has revised its Q2 2015 Staying Even Index (SEI) to 3.0% (from 2.9%) and the YTD SEI through Q2 at 3.1% (from 3.0%).
The SEI measures the year-to-year income growth required for individuals to keep up in the U.S. economy – or to “stay even” with where they were in the prior year period. The YTD 3.1% growth in the SEI is significantly higher than the reported 0.0% increase in the consumer price index (CPI) compared to the year ago period, demonstrating that raises that keep up with reported inflation are not sufficient to stay even in the growing U.S. economy. See Exhibit 1 for further comparisons of CPI and SEI growth rates.
The 3.1% increase in the Staying Even Index (SEI) is based upon reported YTD Q2 year-over-year nominal GDP growth of 3.8% and average population growth of 0.u7%.
These estimates suggest that individuals whose YTD Q2 2015 total income from all sources grew by more than 3.1% from the same period in 2014 expanded their adjusted share of the U.S. economy, and those whose total income grew by less than this fell behind compared to the prior year.
StayingEven.com will publish updates to these figures as GDP and population estimates are revised over the coming months and as future quarter GDP estimates are released. We are dedicated to helping individuals understand what income growth is required to keep up in the U.S. Economy.
| Exhibit 1: Comparing CPI and SEI Growth Rates | ||||||
| LTM 6/30/2015 | CY 2014 | Five Years Ending 12/31/2014 |
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| CPIa | SEI | CPIa | SEI | CPIa | SEI | |
| Value at end of period | 238.6 | 2364.2 | 234.8 | 2328.8 | 234.8 | 2328.8 |
| Value at beginning of period | 238.3 | 2293.1 | 233.0 | 2253.3 | 215.9 | 2009.2 |
| Growth From Beginning of Period | 0.1% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 8.7% | 15.9% |
| End of Period Worth of Beginning $10.00 | $10.01 | $10.31 | $10.08 | $10.33 | $10.87 | $11.59 |
| a CPI-U Series | ||||||
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