Q3 SEI Revised Up Slightly, from 2.2% to 2.4%

Sunday November 29, 2015

Based upon last weeks “second estimate” of U.S. third quarter GDP “advance” released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, StayingEven.com provides its own second estimate of the Q3 2015 Staying Even Index (SEI).  Consistent with the upward revisions to Q3 GDP, we have revised up the Q3 SEI to 2.4% (from 2.2%).  The YTD SEI through Q3 remains at 2.8%, consistent with our prior reading.  

The SEI measures the year-to-year income growth required for individuals to keep up in the U.S. economy – or to “stay even” with where they were in the prior year period.  The YTD 2.8% growth in the SEI is significantly higher than the reported 0.0% average increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) compared to the year ago period, demonstrating that raises that keep up with reported inflation are not sufficient to stay even in the growing U.S. economy.  

The 2.8% Q3 YTD increase in the Staying Even Index (SEI) is based upon reported YTD Q3 year-over-year nominal GDP growth of 3.5% and average population growth of 0.7%. The second estimate SEI growth of 2.4% within Q3 is based upon 3.1 % YOY Q3 nominal GDP growth and population growth of 0.7%.

These estimates suggest that individuals whose YTD Q3 2015 total income from all sources grew by more than 2.8% from the same period in 2014 expanded their adjusted share of the U.S. economy, and those whose total income grew by less than this fell behind compared to the prior year.  

StayingEven.com will publish updates to these figures as GDP and population estimates are revised over the coming months and as future quarter GDP estimates are released. We are dedicated to helping individuals understand what income growth is required to keep up in the U.S. Economy. 

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