1.8% Income Growth from 2015 Required to Keep Up in U.S. Economy
Sunday July 31, 2016

Based upon this week’s “advance” estimate of Q2 2016 GDP by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the agency’s update to its Q1 and prior period GDP estimates, our initial estimate of First Half 2016 (YTD Q2) Staying Even Index growth is 1.8%. This is significantly higher than the reported 1.1% increase in the consumer price index (CPI) compared to the year ago period, demonstrating that wages that increase with inflation/COLA are not sufficient to keep up in the growing U.S. economy. The 1.8% increase in the Staying Even Index (SEI) is based upon reported YTD Q2 year-over-year nominal GDP growth of 2.6% and population growth of 0.8%.

These projections suggest that individuals whose 2016 total income from all sources through June grew by more than 1.8% from the same period in 2015 expanded their adjusted share of the U.S. economy, and those whose total income grew by less than this fell behind compared to the prior year.

As part of its release, the BEA updated its Q1 2016 economic growth estimates as well as its estimates for prior periods, which had the impact of bringing Q1 SEI growth down from the previously reported 2.5%, to 2.0%. These revised Q1 figures are included in our Q2 YTD SEI estimate discussed above. The impact of these revisions on prior year SEI growth estimates will be addressed in a separate release.

StayingEven.com will publish updates to these figures as GDP and population estimates are revised over the coming months and as future quarter GDP estimates are released. We are dedicated to helping individuals understand what income growth is required to keep up in the U.S. Economy.

##

To find out whether you have gotten ahead and to learn more about the Index, please follow @stayingeven on Twitter and visit us at StayingEven.com