May 17, 2025

Based upon the US government’s advance estimate of Q1 2025 US economic activity, our initial estimate of the 2025 Q1 Staying Even Index is 4.0%. This represents a continued slowing from 2024’s 4.3% reading and 2023’s reading of 5.7%, meaning the amount of income growth required to keep up in the US economy continues to moderate.

The 4.0% Staying Even Index (SEI) reading is based upon reported nominal GDP growth of 4.7% and estimated annual population growth of 0.7% from prior year.

These projections suggest that individuals whose total income from all sources (after tax wages and other income) grew by more than 4.0% from the same period in 2024 expanded their share of the U.S. economy, and those whose total income grew by less than this fell behind compared to the prior year. 2025 Q1 average price levels (CPI-U) were up 2.4% from prior year, showing yet again that raises that just keep up with inflation are not sufficient to stay even in the growing US economy.

StayingEven.com will publish updates to these figures as GDP and population estimates are revised. We are dedicated to helping individuals understand what income growth is required to keep up in the U.S. Economy.

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To find out whether you have gotten ahead, try our Staying Even Calculator, and to learn more about the Index, visit us at StayingEven.com. You can also follow us @stayingeven on Twitter.